So on the math: We've been discussing this with a bit of missing data, because some states are *still* counting. But let's take Florida, where all the votes are in. They had a shade over 11 million votes overall in 2020, about 5.7 million went to Trump. This time, turnout declined a smidgen to 10.8 million, but Trump turnout went up to 6…
So on the math: We've been discussing this with a bit of missing data, because some states are *still* counting. But let's take Florida, where all the votes are in. They had a shade over 11 million votes overall in 2020, about 5.7 million went to Trump. This time, turnout declined a smidgen to 10.8 million, but Trump turnout went up to 6.1 million. That's about 500,000 more votes with turnout decline of about 200,000. That's a pretty similar trend across the other states that are reporting full totals.
But you're right that my language was a bit imprecise: I meant he won millions of undecideds, non-voters, and frustrated democrats — not that he won multiple millions of each category.
I understand your point entirely, because it's correct! Many Democrats *did* stay home. But if you look at the (final) 2024 totals for Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia: Trump got more votes there (amidst lower turnout) in 2024 than Biden won in 2020.
But anyway, you can split the numbers until you lose your mind.
I totally agree with you that an innate feeling that women can't be leaders played aggressively against Harris. But I disagree that it did her in. There's a point I made, above, that I may flesh out into a longer piece at some point: It's about the politics of surprise.
Very few things Harris did during the campaign surprised anymore. The "I've got a glock in my purse" was absolutely one of them. If you can't surprise people, then you can't change their baked-in assumptions about you. I think if voters could've seen Harris being in command and in control — without being scripted, without having her staff around, without it being a neatly-choreographed campaign event — they might be surprised by her. Unfortunately, her campaign seemed designed to prevent surprises, and thus it gave up trying to change people's minds about her. To that end, I think a woman absolutely *can* run again, but she would need to find a way to break that stereotype more forcefully. (But also, I predict the first female president will be a Republican.)
Not sure Florida is the best example because it is it seems that a lot of voters are either migrating in or leaving in disgust, so it's hard to say its balance was the SAME group of voters. And given where most of the uncounted votes are, I doubt the totals will be up a whole lot more. But I do agree that there is no "one" thing that did Harris in. I'm just looking at underlying things that our society needs to fix to be anywhere close to its ideals.
By the same token of course, the vote for trump is nowhere close to a mandate, not just because of the low turnout but because so many don't seem to have been all in on his policies--a lot of people chose their personal sense of the economy over personal distaste for one or more parts of the culture wars, for example. And the economy is likely to be the most spectacular and most immediate failure unless somehow the tariff idea is squelched.
So on the math: We've been discussing this with a bit of missing data, because some states are *still* counting. But let's take Florida, where all the votes are in. They had a shade over 11 million votes overall in 2020, about 5.7 million went to Trump. This time, turnout declined a smidgen to 10.8 million, but Trump turnout went up to 6.1 million. That's about 500,000 more votes with turnout decline of about 200,000. That's a pretty similar trend across the other states that are reporting full totals.
But you're right that my language was a bit imprecise: I meant he won millions of undecideds, non-voters, and frustrated democrats — not that he won multiple millions of each category.
I understand your point entirely, because it's correct! Many Democrats *did* stay home. But if you look at the (final) 2024 totals for Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia: Trump got more votes there (amidst lower turnout) in 2024 than Biden won in 2020.
But anyway, you can split the numbers until you lose your mind.
I totally agree with you that an innate feeling that women can't be leaders played aggressively against Harris. But I disagree that it did her in. There's a point I made, above, that I may flesh out into a longer piece at some point: It's about the politics of surprise.
Very few things Harris did during the campaign surprised anymore. The "I've got a glock in my purse" was absolutely one of them. If you can't surprise people, then you can't change their baked-in assumptions about you. I think if voters could've seen Harris being in command and in control — without being scripted, without having her staff around, without it being a neatly-choreographed campaign event — they might be surprised by her. Unfortunately, her campaign seemed designed to prevent surprises, and thus it gave up trying to change people's minds about her. To that end, I think a woman absolutely *can* run again, but she would need to find a way to break that stereotype more forcefully. (But also, I predict the first female president will be a Republican.)
Anyway, good note! Thanks for reading!
Not sure Florida is the best example because it is it seems that a lot of voters are either migrating in or leaving in disgust, so it's hard to say its balance was the SAME group of voters. And given where most of the uncounted votes are, I doubt the totals will be up a whole lot more. But I do agree that there is no "one" thing that did Harris in. I'm just looking at underlying things that our society needs to fix to be anywhere close to its ideals.
By the same token of course, the vote for trump is nowhere close to a mandate, not just because of the low turnout but because so many don't seem to have been all in on his policies--a lot of people chose their personal sense of the economy over personal distaste for one or more parts of the culture wars, for example. And the economy is likely to be the most spectacular and most immediate failure unless somehow the tariff idea is squelched.