Populations probably have relatively-narrow windows to reverse democratic backslide. I met Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya a couple of years ago, the woman who challenged Lukashenko for the presidency. She almost certainly won the vote, but the official tally had Lukashenko with 80%. Participating in those elections is probably an exercise in f…
Populations probably have relatively-narrow windows to reverse democratic backslide. I met Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya a couple of years ago, the woman who challenged Lukashenko for the presidency. She almost certainly won the vote, but the official tally had Lukashenko with 80%. Participating in those elections is probably an exercise in futility.
But you're right, another Trump term can probably be recovered from. But, not necessarily!
I think there's a (slow, frustrating) path back from feudalism (dictatorship, call them as you will) that can start at any point. Egypt briefly had, and tossed away, democracy, a decade back, now.
The narrative is that feudalism is the ground-state, the guaranteed-stable, minimum-energy trough you fall back to, whereas democracy is difficult, never more than meta-stable, and requires constant maintenance; that democracy is the hard climb, feudalism is the easy Fall.
But that refers to the feudal *system*, which has endless turns of the wheel, always a New Boss, same as the Old Boss of course, but at a year-to-year level, it's far more unstable than democracy. (Ask a Saudi billionaire who spent a night getting a "contribution" to MBS beaten out of him a few years back.)
Every one of those little feudal turnovers is another opportunity to bring in democracy. Will Sisi be replaced by another dictator in Egypt? Will the new guy repudiate old contracts?
Not certain, and thus Egypt is a bad place for investment, unstable. Those in Egypt who are rich and powerful would rather live in a democracy that attracted investment, (but not so democratic it deposed their high status). If they can find a Sisi replacement who can win a free election, but not raise their taxes much, they'll back him, and Sisi is toast.
A populace offered some democracy - even Chomsky's "managed" sorta-democracy - may take the offer. S. Korea, Japan, Mexico migrated, over decades, towards greater democracy from barely-democratic starts.
I can't recommend "The Dictator's Handbook" by Smith and Bueno de Mesquite, enough. Lays out a dictator's options with brutal clarity, and the dictator's dilemma doesn't change from Africa to Tierra del Fuego.
Populations probably have relatively-narrow windows to reverse democratic backslide. I met Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya a couple of years ago, the woman who challenged Lukashenko for the presidency. She almost certainly won the vote, but the official tally had Lukashenko with 80%. Participating in those elections is probably an exercise in futility.
But you're right, another Trump term can probably be recovered from. But, not necessarily!
I think there's a (slow, frustrating) path back from feudalism (dictatorship, call them as you will) that can start at any point. Egypt briefly had, and tossed away, democracy, a decade back, now.
The narrative is that feudalism is the ground-state, the guaranteed-stable, minimum-energy trough you fall back to, whereas democracy is difficult, never more than meta-stable, and requires constant maintenance; that democracy is the hard climb, feudalism is the easy Fall.
But that refers to the feudal *system*, which has endless turns of the wheel, always a New Boss, same as the Old Boss of course, but at a year-to-year level, it's far more unstable than democracy. (Ask a Saudi billionaire who spent a night getting a "contribution" to MBS beaten out of him a few years back.)
Every one of those little feudal turnovers is another opportunity to bring in democracy. Will Sisi be replaced by another dictator in Egypt? Will the new guy repudiate old contracts?
Not certain, and thus Egypt is a bad place for investment, unstable. Those in Egypt who are rich and powerful would rather live in a democracy that attracted investment, (but not so democratic it deposed their high status). If they can find a Sisi replacement who can win a free election, but not raise their taxes much, they'll back him, and Sisi is toast.
A populace offered some democracy - even Chomsky's "managed" sorta-democracy - may take the offer. S. Korea, Japan, Mexico migrated, over decades, towards greater democracy from barely-democratic starts.
I can't recommend "The Dictator's Handbook" by Smith and Bueno de Mesquite, enough. Lays out a dictator's options with brutal clarity, and the dictator's dilemma doesn't change from Africa to Tierra del Fuego.